The Future of Last-Mile Delivery in Nigeria

Nigeria's last-mile logistics market is projected to grow past ₦500bn in annual spend by the end of the decade. That's a lot of packages. Here's where we think the industry is headed.

1. Consolidation is coming

Right now, most deliveries are handled by either tiny informal riders or very large international couriers. The middle — regional operators with real technology — is where the next few years of growth sit.

2. EV bikes will not arrive on the timeline everyone expects

Charging infrastructure in Lagos is still unreliable. Expect hybrid fleets first: petrol bikes with EV pilots in Lekki, VI, and Ikeja GRA.

3. Payment-on-delivery is dying (slowly)

As bank transfers via USSD get faster and fee-free, cash-on-delivery as a percentage of deliveries is dropping every quarter. Safer for riders. Safer for vendors.

4. Route optimisation will finally be local

Google Maps is great for highways. It is bad at knowing which Lekki gate is locked after 9pm, or which Ikeja street floods in the rainy season. Expect Nigerian players to start building proprietary routing graphs.

5. The OTP / verified-delivery model becomes table stakes

Customers will not accept "dropped off at the gateman" for much longer. OTP, signature capture, and photographed proof-of-delivery will become universal.

We're building Prisdanna with all of this in mind. Come along for the ride.